| The Need
for Risk Analysis
You
make decisions every day. Where to invest, what product to produce, which
vendor to use, what price to charge - the list is endless. You probably
base your decisions on whatever data you have on hand - historical costs,
competitors' prices, vendor estimates, etc. But how often do you have
full, complete information? Prices change, demand fluctuates, costs rise.
It's easy to make the wrong decision if you don't take all possible scenarios
into account. Making the best decisions means performing risk analysis.
And there's no easier, more powerful solution than @RISK, the world's
most widely used risk analysis tool!
Have you ever seen a financial spreadsheet representing multimillion-dollar
ventures containing only best case, worst case, and most likely scenarios?
Or, have you worked in situations where marketing, R&D, engineering,
and other key decisions were based on "best guess" estimates
of factors like demand, market share, and effects of competition? Chances
are if you work in pharmaceuticals, consumer products, financial planning,
manufacturing, oil and gas, the military, energy, government, securities,
insurance, or virtually any other industry, the answer to these questions
is "Yes!" The fact is that the vast majority of Fortune 1000
companies, universities, and government agencies make multimillion-dollar
decisions without taking more than three different possible outcomes into
account! In reality, there are almost always dozens -- if not thousands
-- of possible scenarios that could affect an organization's bottom line.
Recent high-profile debacles like Enron, Ford's $5 billion loss, Orange
County California, and others have shown what can happen when companies
ignore these various possibilities.
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| @RISK
Shows You ALL Possible Outcomes
@RISK
changes all that. @RISK lets you see all possible outcomes in your situation
- and tells you how likely they are to occur! What this means for you
-- the decision maker -- is that you finally have, if not perfect information,
the most complete picture possible. You will see what could happen, how
likely it is to happen, and therefore be able to judge accordingly which
risks to take and which ones to avoid. While no software package can predict
the future, @RISK can enable you to choose the best personal strategy
based on the available information. That's not a bad guarantee!.
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